Abstract:

Objective To analyze the risk factors for the prognosis of acute promyelocytic leukemia（APL）,and to establish the survival model of APL with multiple parameters. Methods A total of 218 patients with APL treated in our hospital from July 2013 to July 2017 were enrolled. The patients were divided into early death group（18 cases）and non-early death group（200 cases）. The risk factors for the prognosis of APL were analyzed,and the survival model was established. Results Patient's age >60 years old,white blood cell（WBC） count>10×10⁹/L,fibrinogen（Fib）≤1.4 g/L,serum creatinine（SCr）>105 μmol/L,lactate dehydrogenase（LDH）>250 U/L,positive PML-RARα fusion gene SG were closely related to early death（P<0.05）. Multivariate Logistic analysis showed that age [odds ratio（OR）=1.049,95% confidence interval（CI） 1.003-1.098,P=0.038] and WBC count（OR=1.030,95%CI 1.007-1.054,P=0.012） were independent risk factors for APL prognosis. The model for predicting the patient's survival was established by the indicators of age,WBC count,Fib,LDH,SCr,and PML-RARα fusion gene subtype at initial diagnosis,and evaluated by receiver operating characteristic（ROC）curve. The area under curve（AUC） was 0.797,the sensitivity was 71.4%,and the specificity was 92.6%.Conclusions Age and WBC count are independent risk factors for APL prognosis. The established model can be explored in predicting the survival status of patients.

Key words: Acute promyelocytic leukemia, Early death, Survival model